Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 22,338
2 Arizona 21,486
3 New York 21,341
4 New Jersey 20,295
5 Florida 18,731
6 Rhode Island 17,202
7 Mississippi 16,687
8 Massachusetts 16,682
9 District of Columbia 16,505
10 Alabama 15,501
11 South Carolina 15,267
12 Delaware 14,584
13 Georgia 13,914
14 Connecticut 13,680
15 Maryland 13,617
16 Illinois 13,445
17 Nevada 13,315
18 Texas 13,231
19 Iowa 13,132
20 Tennessee 12,690
21 Nebraska 12,496
22 Arkansas 12,343
23 Utah 11,560
24 California 11,214
25 North Carolina 10,420
26 Idaho 9,742
27 Virginia 9,649
28 South Dakota 9,269
29 Indiana 9,221
30 New Mexico 8,810
31 Minnesota 8,782
32 Wisconsin 8,741
33 Kansas 8,719
34 Pennsylvania 8,619
35 Michigan 8,535
36 Colorado 7,483
37 North Dakota 7,372
38 Oklahoma 7,358
39 Washington 6,996
40 Ohio 6,993
41 Missouri 6,716
42 Kentucky 5,960
43 New Hampshire 4,688
44 Puerto Rico 4,373
45 Wyoming 4,155
46 Oregon 3,834
47 Alaska 3,753
48 West Virginia 3,177
49 Montana 2,912
50 Maine 2,794
51 Vermont 2,219
52 Hawaii 1,077

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 512
2 Florida 504
3 Mississippi 463
4 Alabama 383
5 Georgia 372
6 Nevada 368
7 Arizona 350
8 South Carolina 341
9 Tennessee 324
10 Texas 322
11 Arkansas 286
12 Idaho 282
13 California 276
14 Oklahoma 235
15 Missouri 215
16 Kansas 205
17 Utah 205
18 North Carolina 195
19 Iowa 180
20 North Dakota 178
21 Wisconsin 171
22 Nebraska 169
23 Delaware 156
24 New Mexico 152
25 Kentucky 148
26 Indiana 135
27 Ohio 129
28 Illinois 127
29 Maryland 122
30 Minnesota 120
31 Montana 116
32 Virginia 116
33 Colorado 112
34 Washington 110
35 Puerto Rico 107
36 District of Columbia 104
37 Alaska 101
38 Wyoming 96
39 West Virginia 92
40 Pennsylvania 75
41 Rhode Island 74
42 Oregon 72
43 Michigan 68
44 South Dakota 68
45 Connecticut 63
46 Massachusetts 46
47 New Jersey 38
48 New York 38
49 Hawaii 30
50 New Hampshire 27
51 Vermont 10
52 Maine 8

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,774
2 New York 1,659
3 Connecticut 1,237
4 Massachusetts 1,232
5 Rhode Island 945
6 District of Columbia 823
7 Louisiana 799
8 Michigan 641
9 Illinois 598
10 Delaware 593
11 Maryland 566
12 Pennsylvania 559
13 Mississippi 491
14 Arizona 433
15 Indiana 428
16 Georgia 317
17 Colorado 311
18 New Hampshire 299
19 Alabama 293
20 New Mexico 286
21 Minnesota 284
22 Ohio 282
23 South Carolina 268
24 Florida 263
25 Iowa 261
26 Virginia 242
27 Nevada 234
28 California 210
29 Washington 208
30 Missouri 198
31 North Carolina 168
32 Texas 168
33 Nebraska 166
34 Kentucky 160
35 Wisconsin 152
36 South Dakota 137
37 North Dakota 135
38 Tennessee 135
39 Arkansas 130
40 Oklahoma 122
41 Kansas 113
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 87
44 Utah 86
45 Idaho 82
46 Oregon 67
47 Puerto Rico 59
48 West Virginia 57
49 Montana 43
50 Wyoming 43
51 Alaska 23
52 Hawaii 17

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Delaware 18
2 Arizona 10
3 South Carolina 10
4 Alabama 9
5 Mississippi 8
6 Louisiana 7
7 Florida 6
8 Texas 6
9 Georgia 5
10 Nevada 4
11 California 3
12 Idaho 3
13 Tennessee 3
14 Arkansas 2
15 Massachusetts 2
16 Missouri 2
17 New Mexico 2
18 North Carolina 2
19 North Dakota 2
20 Ohio 2
21 Utah 2
22 Washington 2
23 Colorado 1
24 Illinois 1
25 Indiana 1
26 Iowa 1
27 Kansas 1
28 Kentucky 1
29 Maryland 1
30 Minnesota 1
31 Montana 1
32 Nebraska 1
33 New Hampshire 1
34 New Jersey 1
35 New York 1
36 Oklahoma 1
37 Oregon 1
38 Pennsylvania 1
39 Puerto Rico 1
40 Rhode Island 1
41 South Dakota 1
42 Wisconsin 1
43 Alaska 0
44 Connecticut 0
45 District of Columbia 0
46 Hawaii 0
47 Maine 0
48 Michigan 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Virginia 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 138,249 1 99
Lake Tennessee 100,342 2 99
Lee Arkansas 98,114 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 93,928 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 90,367 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 27,550 117 96
Richland South Carolina 16,464 372 88
Orange California 10,504 803 74
York South Carolina 9,702 884 71
Pierce Washington 5,188 1563 50

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,020 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 2,929 5 99
Richland South Carolina 298 632 79
Davidson Tennessee 258 720 77
Orange California 175 952 69
Pierce Washington 145 1071 65
York South Carolina 64 1611 48

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons